Posted On: June 28, 2008

Credit Crisis only in "4th Inning"

In an article on Bloomberg.com, Jody Shenn reported that, contrary to some predictions, many experts believe that the credit crisis is far from over. During a conference hosted by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association on June 24, BlackRock president Robert Kapito likened the credit crisis to a baseball game: “Some people think it's in the eighth, I think it's in the fourth inning. Wait until you see the quarterly losses people are going to report this quarter.'' Kapito believes that the losses on positions taken to hedge against souring debt will aid in extending the pain for financial firms.

To date, the world's largest banks and securities firms have reported over $399 billion of write downs and credit losses since the housing market crashed in early 2007. Earlier in June, Lehman Brothers reported a first-quarter net loss of about $700 million on commercial-mortgage holdings and opposite derivative bets. Morgan Stanley reported about $500 million in net losses from hedging meant to offset potential write-downs on high-yield company loans.

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Posted On: June 25, 2008

Investors Beware: Warren Buffet Believes "Recession Getting Worse"

An Associated Press story on MSNBC.com reported that billionaire investor Warren Buffett said that the economy – which he already believed was in a recession – is getting worse. Buffet bases his opinions on data from Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway subsidiaries showing that the economy is weakening.

Berkshire Hathaway owns a variety of companies in the business of insurance, clothing, furniture, jewelry, candy, restaurants, natural gas and corporate jets. It is also a major investor in companies such as Coca-Cola and Wells Fargo. Buffet thus saw a large cross section of the economy in arriving at his conclusions.

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Posted On: June 24, 2008

175,000 Wall Street Jobs May Be Going, Going, Gone

If you work on Wall Street, your days of gainful employment may be numbered. Job security on Wall Street is fast becoming a thing of the past. Josh Fineman and Deirdre Bolton of Bloomberg.com reported today that executive recruiters claim that the world’s biggest financial firms may cut as many as 175,000 jobs by this time next year. These firms have already announced cuts of more than 83,000 jobs since July 2007, and recruiters fear that the job losses will exceed those from the technology collapse market slump of 2000 – 2003.

Firms have incurred write-downs of almost $400 billion because of mortgage defaults. Write-downs of this magnitude mean correspondingly large job losses, especially on Wall Street, which has a tendency to over-hire in up markets and over-fire in down markets.

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Posted On: June 21, 2008

Former Bear Stearns Hedge Fund Managers Indicted

Federal prosecutors have brought the first criminal case related to the subprime mortgage meltdown. A federal indictment brought by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York which was unsealed on Thursday, June 19, alleges that former Bear Stearns hedge fund managers, Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin, deceived investors. The two were accused of securities fraud, wire fraud, and conspiracy. In addition, Cioffi was charge with one count of insider trading.

According to the 27-page indictment, when subprime mortgage problems began driving down the value of the Bear Stearns hedge funds the two managed, they not only hid the truth from investors but went as far as to tell investors to put more money into the funds even as they began to sour.

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Posted On: June 20, 2008

Citi's Write Downs Continue

Citigroup, the largest bank in the U.S., is expected to take substantial second quarter write downs for subprime mortgages, leveraged buyout loans and other assets. The bank's chief financial officer Gary Crittenden told investors via phone on Thursday that second quarter markdowns will be smaller than the first quarter, but substantial nonetheless. “The marks in this quarter are unlikely to be of that same magnitude, but again they are still sizable marks,” Crittenden said.

In the first quarter, Citigroup posted a $6 billion loss and the bank wrote down $1.5 billion for exposure to bond insurers.

Costs linked to worsening subprime credits could have a meaningful impact on Citigroup’s results for the rest of the year. “We will continue to have substantial additional marks on our subprime exposure this quarter,” Crittenden said. “We may continue to see the magnitude of the marks decline, as the exposures that we have have declined.”

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Posted On: June 20, 2008

Investors Lose Big As Wachovia Subsidary Liquidates Evergreen Ultra Short Opportunities Fund

On June 19, Evergreen Investments, a subsidiary of Wachovia Corporation, announced that it was liquidating the Evergreen Ultra Short Opportunities Fund (EUBAX). The Fund has lost 19.6 percent of its value year to date, including total realized losses of more than $200 million in less than three months since March 31, 2008. Bond funds – traditionally considered safe, conservative investments – have once again proven that they are not immune to the subprime meltdown and may be among the most exposed investments of all.

The Fund, whose objective was to provide current income with preservation of capital and low principal fluctuation, invested 83.25% of its assets in commercial and residential fixed and variable rate mortgage backed securities, including collateralized mortgage obligations.

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Posted On: June 19, 2008

Should Investors Switch to Cash in Order to Avoid a "Very Nasty Period"?

On June 18, CNBC.com reported that the Royal Bank of Scotland had warned investors in blunt terms that the global stock and credit markets could be on the verge of a steep market sell-off just as central banks have their hands tied by soaring inflation. "A very nasty period is soon to be upon us – be prepared," warned Bob Janjuah, credit strategist at RBS.

According to a report from the bank’s research team, as "all the chickens come home to roost" from over-easy lending practices and other excesses of the global boom period, the S&P 500 index is likely to slump.

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Posted On: June 16, 2008

FINRA To Broker/Dealers - Let The People Sell Their Auction Rate Securities

It is bad enough that broker-dealers sold auction-rate securities (ARS) to their customers as safe, liquid, cash alternatives with full knowledge that they were none of these things. Then, after the “auctions” failed and customer funds were frozen, many of these same firms continued to act against their customers’ best interests by forcing them to remain invested in these illiquid assets.

When the ARS market froze in February, investors were stuck – they could not sell their ARS at auctions, and there was no other mechanism to sell them. A rudimentary secondary market has sprung up in which third parties are willing to buy the ARS – at a discount from face value – from the investors. The discounts range from 5% to 30%.

It would seem to be a solution for investors, albeit an expensive one, but Bank of America, Wachovia, UBS, and other broker-dealers did not permit their customers to sell the ARS on this secondary market. The hypocritical investment banks claimed that they were “protecting” their customers from needless losses of principal on ARS that were sold as liquid, safe cash alternatives.

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Posted On: June 11, 2008

Wall Street CEOs Too Optimistic?

Chief executives of the world's largest financial institutions may have been a bit too optimistic in predicting that the end of the global credit crisis was near, according to a recent story by the Associated Press on MSNBC.com. In April, Morgan Stanley's John Mack, Goldman Sachs' Lloyd Blankfein, Lehman Brothers’ Richard Fuld, and Merrill Lynch's John Thain were upbeat about the financial market. Sports metaphors abounded. Mack said that the credit crisis had reached “maybe the top of the ninth” of a baseball game while Blankfein compared the situation to the “third or fourth quarter" of a football game.

Such predictions of a market turnaround were premature. A wave of consumer anxiety about the financial industry, inflation, and a lull in the economy caused stocks to fall recently.

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Posted On: June 10, 2008

Home Equity Falls To Lowest Level Since World War II

The Associated Press reported on June 6th that home equity has “dropped to its lowest level since the end of World War II.” At the end of March, almost 8.5 million homeowners had negative or no equity in their homes, according to Moody's Economy.com chief economist Mark Zandi.

"For most, their home is their key asset. If they have no equity in their home, likely their net worth is negative, too. Their entire balance sheet will be underwater," Zandi advised.

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Posted On: June 9, 2008

Have Things Changed At World Financial Group?

In 2007, worldwide earnings for Dutch insurer Aegon NV dropped 20 percent. Profit in the Americas, however, rose 12 percent because of the firm’s little known division, World Financial Group Inc., whose agents sell life insurance, annuities and mutual funds from other Aegon units, as reported by Seth Lubove in a May 28th Bloomberg.com article.

According to the company’s marketing materials, what sets World Financial Group apart from traditional sales forces is its structure. The pyramid-like, multilevel sales organization produces hefty compensation for its agents but not from the sales of products as much as the recruitment of new agents. Agents who garner promotions also get a portion of the commissions earned by new agents they recruit.

World Financial has been accused by securities regulators in Missouri and Utah of misrepresenting investment returns and making unsuitable sales of variable annuities. This annuity controversy has also received attention from state securities officials in Alabama, Iowa, and Minnesota.

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Posted On: June 6, 2008

Sign Of The Times: Foreclosure Bus Tour

They say that desperate times call for desperate measures. As reported by Peter S. Green on Bloomberg.com, the Long Island Bus Foreclosure Tour is the latest gimmick by lenders that are desperate to sell foreclosed properties. With a mortgage broker, general contractor, home inspector and attorney in tow, prospective buyers paid $75 to ride a bus and visit eight foreclosed homes in the New York City suburb of Long Island last month.

The foreclosure tour is the brainchild of Re/Max Village Properties saleswoman, Sheri Cambareri and broker, Dave Farrell. According to Eric Prusan, the lawyer who spoke on the tour, with some buyers ready to purchase the same day, the tours make for a “win-win situation for everybody.” “All you got to do is decide if you want to spend the money. We'll help you buy the house.” Prusan said.

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Posted On: June 6, 2008

Paulson: Financial Turmoil Will End In "Months"

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson had on his conomic cheerleader costume when he said it would only take “months” before turmoil in the financial markets ends. “We're talking about months and there will continue to be bumps in the road,” Paulson said during Q&A after giving a speech in Abu Dhabi, as reported by John Brinsley on Bloomberg.com on June 2.

Paulson responded to heightened concern about the weakness of the dollar, which has fallen 14 percent against the Euro. “Markets respond to economic fundamentals,” Paulson said. “Every economy is going to have its ups and downs and the U.S. is going through a tough period. I believe the long-term economic fundamentals will be reflected in our currency,” Paulson advised.

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Posted On: June 5, 2008

S&P Slashes Ratings Of Wall Street Banks

As reported by Christine Harper on Bloomberg.com and Kathy Shwiff at The Wall Street Journal on June 2, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) cut credit ratings for three investment banks, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and Morgan Stanley. As a result, the firms say that they may have to book more write-downs on devalued assets.

Morgan Stanley, which is the second largest U.S. securities firm by market value, experienced a credit rating cut to A+ from AA-. Merrill Lynch, the third-biggest firm, was cut to A from A+, as was the nation’s fourth-biggest securities firm, Lehman Brothers. The credit rating of Goldman Sachs, the largest U.S. securities firm by market value, was stated at AA-.

S&P says that the “outlooks on the large financial institutions sector in the U.S. are now predominantly negative.” To date, the firms have raised about $270 billion of new capital. This capital, however, is considered to be of lower quality because much of it is comprised of hybrid securities, exceeding the S&P limits on the amount of hybrids permitted in the capital structure.

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Posted On: June 5, 2008

Home Prices Continue To Fall Fast

The vicious cycle of falling house prices, subprime losses, increasing foreclosures and tighter credit continues. Stephanie Armour of USA Today wrote on May 27, that, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller's national index, home prices have experienced the sharpest fall in the 20-year history of the index. Economists warned that further declines are likely. "It's ugly," said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors. "In major metro areas, we had the big (price) run-ups, and that's where we're seeing the record declines. Everything is working in the direction of more price declines."

Economist Patrick Newport of Global Insight agrees. "We do think prices will drop a lot more," Newport advised. "We forecast another 10% drop from current levels and bottoming out in 2009."

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Posted On: June 4, 2008

Retiring Baby Boomers: Fewer Than Expected

At 78 million strong, baby boomers have always been a targeted demographic. Dubbed by the Social Security Administration as a “silver tsunami,” the baby boomers are an attractive opportunity for the financial services industry.

The financial services industry launched advertising campaigns geared towards boomers early. Many such firms have counted on the baby boomers to fuel growth in new products, from target-date mutual funds to investment funds that buy retirement businesses to expanded offerings form leisure industries. The experts, however, were wrong. For at least the next 25 years, as reported in the May 22, 2008 issue of Business Week, the retirement market will be much smaller than the often-cited 78 million. In fact, the growth rate will be less than four percent annually or may even be zero.

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Posted On: June 2, 2008

Falcon Investors: What Are You Releasing?

Citigroup’s Falcon and ASTA/MAT hedge funds have previously been reported on in this space. (For further background, see articles on our subprime coalition’s website here). As noted therein, Smith Barney brokers marketed these hedge funds to their best customers as low-risk, conservative funds, a municipal bond fund alternative. They were anything but.

Citi has taken the unusual – if not nearly unprecedented – step of offering investors in these funds an opportunity to recoup some of their losses. It does so through a complicated tender offer (“Offering Memorandum” or “OM”) that involves investors tendering their shares and executing a release of claims in return for 45 cents per share and 75% of the liquidation value of the portfolio over 45 cents per share, less Citi’s “cost of capital” (whatever that is). (To be more precise, Citi is making this tender offer to investors in Falcon Two, Falcon Two B, Falcon Three, Falcon Four, and Falcon Plus2. We are only reviewing OM materials for Two B and Four investors but believe them to be the same for other Falcon funds. Also, the “tender price” may vary from fund to fund. As of April 18, it was 45 cents for the first three funds and 54 cents for Falcon Four).

We have recently received and have begun to review carefully the Falcon tender offer documents. (Investors wanting to accept the tender offer have until June 30 to do so). We have not yet finished that review. In the course of our initial review, however, we have developed serious concerns about the scope of the release that Citi is asking Falcon investors to sign. In particular, we are concerned about the potential impact of the release upon Falcon investors who also invested in MAT/ASTA funds.

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Posted On: June 2, 2008

Oil And Other Energy Investment Scams Likely On The Rise

Scam artists have always followed the headlines. With oil prices setting all-time records, history tells us that con artists are already peddling investments in "alternative energy" resources, such as a company that claims it can burn water as fuel or that is building refineries to harness the energy of animal renderings. Even companies that tout their abilities to render more traditional sources of energy such as oil wells or coal burning plants should be studied scrupulously or avoided altogether as suspicious in the current economic climate, particularly if the investment is represented as anything other than highly speculative. If an investment is hyped as "can't miss," or if high or guaranteed returns are promised, the offer is likely a scam to be avoided.

Securities regulators regularly report an increase in such schemes whenever oil prices are high. For example in March 2001, the date of the last major oil price spike, the California Department of Corporations reported that it was looking into 20 new offerings in the alternative energy field. Within two years of that date regulators in seven states -- Washington, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Texas, Wisconsin, Kansas and Ohio, had taken action against promoters of such schemes. The AARP regularly counsels its members to be on the lookout for oil and gas investment scams when gas prices are high.