20% of Existing Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) on 'Death Watch' List

January 25, 2012 by Page Perry, LLC

While exchange traded funds continue to flood the market, a record number of existing ETFs are failing or in trouble. Last year, 308 new exchange traded funds were launched, but almost 90 percent of them were unable to attract the $30 million regarded as a minimum threshold amount for profitability, according to CNNMoney (See “Is the ETF bubble about to burst?”), citing XTF, a firm that researches and advises exchange traded funds globally.

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Are Wall Street Wirehouses 'Killing the Goose that Laid the Golden Egg?'

January 24, 2012 by Page Perry, LLC

The big four Wall Street wirehouses have lost market share since the financial crisis in part because of their role in the crisis and “customer distrust,” according to Bing Waldert, a director of Cerulli Associates Inc. (See “Wirehouse market share has shriveled since crisis,” InvestmentNews). Merrill Lynch Wealth Management, Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, UBS AG and Wells Fargo & Co. have also lost market share by terminating lower producing brokers. While the wiehouses have tried to focus on high net worth clients, their share of that lucrative market has declined as well.

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Corporate Bankruptcies Expected to Increase

January 23, 2012 by Page Perry, LLC

An increase in corporate borrowing costs and Eastman Kodak’s recent bankruptcy filing have set off a round of speculation about whether it is the start of a growing trend in corporate bankruptcy filings. While Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings have been falling since 2009, George Putnam of BankruptcyData.com is expecting an uptick in corporate bankruptcy filings. (“Are corporate defaults set to rise?” USA Today) "We're going to see more big bankruptcies this year," Putnam was quoted as saying, adding: "We'll see a reasonable number even if the economy is pretty strong."

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More Investors Avoid Stocks - Demand for Equities Drops

January 20, 2012 by Page Perry, LLC

The dynamics of equity investing are changing and investors need to consider these changes when making investment decisions. Investors have pulled over $400 billion out of equity mutual funds since 2008, resulting assets of some of those funds being cut in half. Money has flowed into bond funds, but even more money (eight times as much) has been deposited into bank accounts, confirming investors’ apprehensions about the stock market. (“Investors to stock funds: Get lost,” USA Today, John Waggoner).

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ETFs Increase Volatility in the Junk Bond Market

January 18, 2012 by Page Perry, LLC

Junk bond exchange traded funds have ten times more money than they did two years ago, and are causing some of the largest price swings ever. Junk bond price swings were seven times higher in November than in May. This volatility in the junk bond market is similar to the volatility seen in other asset classes caused by exchange traded funds. (See Bloomberg “Exchange Traded Junk Funds Roil Bond Market”).


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Investor Alert - Extreme Caution Advised in 2012

January 11, 2012 by Page Perry, LLC

Investors are advised to take precautions in 2012. The stage is set for the occurrence of extreme results for investors that go far beyond the normal levels of unpredictability, according to PIMCO’s Mohamed A. El-Erian (See “Investing in a ‘Fat Tail’ World”).

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More 'Flash Crashes' on the Horizon?

January 4, 2012 by Page Perry, LLC

A year and half after the May 6, 2010 flash crash, which resulted in impossibly rapid price gyrations and scared the daylights out of investors, no one has fully explained what happened. Therefore, it could happen again at any time. “Flash Crash Threatens to Return With A Vengeance,” CNBC.com.

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Index Funds Can Carry Considerable Risk

December 30, 2011 by Page Perry, LLC

Is owning index funds a good idea? It depends on the index, according to personal finance expert John Waggoner (“Funds following odd index? Just say no”). Broad based index funds are a good idea, but new exotic niche funds are not.

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Stock Funds Underperform Major Index

December 19, 2011 by Page Perry, LLC

Many stock mutual funds are down for the year, and the reason why has to do in part with high expenses and use of derivatives. The average diversified equity mutual fund has declined 5.9 percent this year, compared with only a 1.4 percent decline in the S&P 500 stock index, and 92 percent of equity mutual funds have lost value this year. (See John Waggoner’s USA Today article entitled “It’s been a pitiful year for stock funds”).

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Ignoring Financial Crimes Makes Next Financial Crisis Inevitable

December 13, 2011 by Page Perry, LLC

Criminal acts did not play an important role in causing the mortgage crisis, according to an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal written by Gordon Crovitz, a former publisher of the Journal. In Crovitz’s view, critically flawed policies and rules in the U.S. and abroad did so, and set the stage for the global shocks we see today. Crovitz did not say that crimes did or did not occur; he said that bad regulations were “worse than a crime.” (“Financial Regulation: Worse Than a Crime,” Wall Street Journal, Opinion). Other informed observers believe the subject of Wall Street crime is a very serious matter.

There is no doubt that, as Crovitz says, policies that subsidized bad mortgages in the U.S. and shaky European sovereign debt, and the “Basel rules” that called for big banks to place significant amounts of capital in investments like mortgages and mortgage-backed securities, were based on unwarranted assumptions that those investments were low-risk. When they imploded, many banks that held the same undiversified bad investments went down too. Crovitz concludes: “The reason prosecutors can't prove criminal intent is that in many cases the bankers were simply trading in compliance with the regulations governing them.”

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Household Wealth in the U.S. Continues to Decline

December 9, 2011 by Page Perry, LLC

U.S. household net worth fell 4 percent to $57.4 trillion, the sharpest drop in over two years, and Americans’ stock portfolios fell 5.2 percent in the third quarter. About 50 percent of Americans own stocks or stock mutual funds. (“Wealth in U.S. takes big hit,” Atlanta Journal Constitution).

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Investors Continue to Withdraw Monies from Equity Mutual Funds

December 9, 2011 by Page Perry, LLC

For the seventh straight month, equity mutual funds reported net outflows (investor withdrawals). For the week ended November 30, equity mutual funds’ net outflows consisted of $6.67 billion from domestic equity funds and $2.96 billion from foreign equity funds, according to the Investment Company Institute, the national association of U.S. investment companies (i.e., mutual funds). Overall, U.S. mutual funds lost $9.24 billion to withdrawals last week, the most in almost two months. (See InvestmentNews: “Mutual problem as stock fund investors still heading for the exits”).

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Dr. Doom Forsees a 2012 Recession

November 29, 2011 by Page Perry, LLC

Noted professor of economics, Nouriel Roubini, predicts the U.S. economy will slide into recession in 2012 primarily because of the failure to deal with fiscal problems as a result of political gridlock in Washington. Last week, Roubini tweeted: "Super-Committee: Super-Failure, Super-Pathetic, Super-Gridlock, Super-GOP-Lunacy on Taxes, Super-Fiscal Drag in 2012 that ensures double dip."

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Concerns Rise Regarding Wall Street Banks

November 21, 2011 by Page Perry, LLC

Fitch Ratings issued a report on November 16 on the U.S. banking sector saying that “the risks of a negative shock are rising” if the effects of European debt crisis keep spreading. (“Fitch’s Warning Spooks Investors, “ Wall Street Journal).

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Investment Corruption Runs Deep in Congress

November 18, 2011 by Page Perry, LLC

Members of Congress are repeatedly using their positions to personally profit at the expense of other investors as described in Hoover Institute fellow Peter Schweizer’s recently published a book entitled “Throw Them All Out.” Among other things, it details insider trading by Congressmen that would be clearly illegal if done by anyone else. Last Sunday, a 60-Minutes report featured Schweizer, his book and a number of Congressmen, throwing a harsh light on this practice (“It’s time to ban insider trading by Congress,” Roger Parloff, CNNMoney).

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Occupy Wall Street Protests Expand in the Face of Repression

November 17, 2011 by Page Perry, LLC

It’s getting rough and rowdy as Occupy Wall Street protesters attempt to shut Wall Street down and police try to clear them out. Protesters marched from their former home in Zuccotti Park and blocked intersections near the New York Stock Exchange. Police hit and shoved some of them, and reporters saw one woman pinned to the ground by police, bleeding from her mouth. (“Protesters Disrupt Business Around Wall Street,” Wall Street Journal).

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Wall Street Firms Refuse to Disclose Exposure to European Debt

November 16, 2011 by Page Perry, LLC

JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have sold credit default swaps that put them on the hook for $5 trillion of debt – but they won’t say whose debt they are on the hook for. That leaves investors worried that it may be debt issued by Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and/or Spain. Greece and Italy are insolvent, and the others are not very creditworthy, according to experts.

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Wall Street's Job Cuts Continue

November 16, 2011 by Page Perry, LLC

Citigroup plans to cut 3,000 or more jobs, about 1 percent of employees, and BNP Paribas plans to cut about 1,400 jobs, or 7 percent of its employees, according to the New York Times (“Citi to Shed 1% of Its Workers; BNP Paribas Plans to Cut 7%”). The NY Times was told unofficially that one third of the cuts at Citigroup will come from its securities and banking unit, but the timing is uncertain.

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Italy's Insolvency Threatens the World's Economy

November 11, 2011 by Page Perry, LLC

Italy, Europe’s third largest economy, is not merely facing a liquidity crisis; it is insolvent, according to Matthew Lynn, CEO of London-based consulting firm Strategy Economics. (“Italy is bust; it’s just a question of when,” MartketWatch). It is only ironic that Italy’s government debt has been stable for a decade (but at a high level) and its population is relatively wealthy, because the country faces three big problems, which, Lynn believes, are insurmountable.

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New Book Reveals How Wall Street Firms are 'Gaming' the Capital Markets

November 11, 2011 by Page Perry, LLC

Mike Mayo, a banking analyst who has worked at six Wall Street firms and has a reputation for independence from the banks he covers,recently published a book that reveals the fundamental unreliability of Wall Street research recommendations. When Mayo started out on Wall Street, he says he called them as he saw them. But when his analysis was negative on a firm the firm cut back on business with his bank, and Mayo was penalized. In 1999, Mayo made a controversial call to sell bank stocks. Even though he was proven correct, he was fired by Credit Suisse in 2000. In 2002, he testified before Congressional committees about the conflicts of interest on Wall Street, and took his message to the media, but nothing changed. Ten big Banks paid over $1 billion to settlement analyst fraud charges in 2003. Then Wall Street returned to business as usual, and the system is still riddled with conflicts.

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